COVID-19 Scratch Models To Support Local Decisions
In: Forthcoming, Manufacturing & Services Operations Management
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In: Forthcoming, Manufacturing & Services Operations Management
SSRN
In: Socio-economic planning sciences: the international journal of public sector decision-making, Band 47, Heft 1, S. 2-8
ISSN: 0038-0121
In: Studies in conflict and terrorism, Band 35, Heft 12, S. 880-894
ISSN: 1521-0731
In: Studies in conflict & terrorism, Band 35, Heft 12, S. 880-894
ISSN: 1057-610X
World Affairs Online
In: Evaluation review: a journal of applied social research, Band 26, Heft 4, S. 382-394
ISSN: 0193-841X, 0164-0259
In: Socio-economic planning sciences: the international journal of public sector decision-making, Band 31, Heft 4, S. 281-291
ISSN: 0038-0121
In: The Journal of sex research, Band 28, Heft 1, S. 29-44
ISSN: 1559-8519
In: New directions for program evaluation: a quarterly sourcebook, Band 1990, Heft 46, S. 23-36
ISSN: 1534-875X
AbstractA variety of motivations exist for constructing mathematical models of the AIDS epidemic, including forecasting, scientific estimation of disease parameters, and policy analysis. This chapter discusses several different modeling approaches and their attendant uses, stressing the results most relevant to policy analysts and program evaluators.
In: The Journal of sex research, Band 26, Heft 3, S. 301-314
ISSN: 1559-8519
In: The Journal of sex research, Band 25, Heft 3, S. 317-322
ISSN: 1559-8519
In: Decision sciences, Band 19, Heft 2, S. 383-391
ISSN: 1540-5915
In: Socio-economic planning sciences: the international journal of public sector decision-making, Band 21, Heft 5, S. 305-310
ISSN: 0038-0121
In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 41, Heft 9, S. 1643-1661
ISSN: 1539-6924
AbstractAccurately estimating the size of the undocumented immigrant population is a critical component of assessing the health and security risks of undocumented immigration to the United States. To provide one such estimate, we use data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP), a study that includes samples of undocumented Mexican immigrants to the United States after their return to Mexico. Of particular interest are the departure and return dates of a sampled migrant's most recent sojourn in the United States, and the total number of such journeys undertaken by that migrant household, for these data enable the construction of data‐driven undocumented immigration models. However, such data are subject to an extreme physical bias, for to be included in such a sample, a migrant must have returned to Mexico by the time of the survey, excluding those undocumented immigrants still in the United States. In our analysis, we account for this bias by jointly modeling trip timing and duration to produce the likelihood of observing the data in such a "snapshot" sample. Our analysis characterizes undocumented migration flows including single‐visit migrants, repeat visitors, and "retirement" from circular migration. Starting with 1987, we apply our models to 30 annual random snapshot surveys of returned undocumented Mexican migrants accounting for undocumented Mexican migration from 1980 to 2016. Scaling to population quantities and supplementing our analysis of southern border crossings with estimates of visa overstays, we produce lower bounds on the total number of undocumented immigrants that are much larger than conventional estimates based on U.S.‐based census‐linked surveys, and broadly consistent with the more recent estimates reported by Fazel‐Zarandi, Feinstein, and Kaplan.
In: Studies in conflict and terrorism, Band 37, Heft 3, S. 258-266
ISSN: 1521-0731
In: Studies in conflict & terrorism, Band 37, Heft 3, S. 258-266
ISSN: 1057-610X
World Affairs Online